The Next 100 years

I've found a great book, which will certainly get everybody thinking:

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

The author, George Friedman, is the head of Stratfor.com, which forcasts (ie predicts) regional and world events. He has some very thought provoking things to say...

Thinking about the underlying problem

We live in a world of solutions. We are constantly bombarded with solutions, sometimes to problems that we didn't even know we had. Just look at much of the advertising...new appliances...new gadgets...new programmes, all promising to make our lives easier: all promising to fix some problem that we have.

And sometimes it's easy to believe what we're told by such advertising. But a key element in thinking is being able to decide whether the solution being offered fixes an actual problem that we have.

In their book businessThink: Rules for Getting It Right--Now, and No Matter What, authors Dave Marcum and Steve Smith talk about "Moving off the solution". This basically means getting to the underlying problem that the solution is meant to solve, AND then deciding whether it really is a problem that needs solving (and if so, whether the solution on offer is the best available).

So for example, let's say your new years resolution is to start running each day.

The key question then is:

What problem(s) is running meant to solve?

You come up with a list:

- Increase my fitness
- Burn off excess fat
- Gives me an emotional recharge
- Gets me outside rather than staying stuck indoors all day.

You then figure out the priority order of the problems, from most important to least important:

1) Increase my fitness
2) Burn off excess fat
3) Gives me an emotional recharge
4) Gets me outdoors

As it turns out, your original order is the order of priority (it doesn't always happens this way).

Next, you need to figure out whether the above problems really do need fixing. So you go through and ask: do I really need to increas my fitness? What is the evidence that I do? Perhaps when you play with your kids, you notice how quickly you're out of breath. Or perhaps you want to run a marathon at the end of the year, and know you'll need to increase fitness.

You then move to 2) Burn off excess fat. Do you really need to burn off excess fat? Perhaps you're 30 lbs overweight. And then what happens? Well, you run a higher risk of chronic illness, whether diabetes, coronary problems, joint problems, and so on.

So far, based on the evidence you've come up with, it seems that the problems (1) and (2) above really do need fixing.

But of course, the next question to ask is if running is the solution that fixes these problems, or whether there are better alternatives (eg skipping rope, swimming, cycling, etc). At this point, you can list some alternatives, and see which one suits the best.

In my personal case, I'll be trying the skipping rope, as I'm not a big fan of running, yet still need the aerobic exercise.

Anyway, the moral of the story is to always look beneath a proposed solution, to see what the actual problem is. But don't stop there! Continue on to see if the problem really does need fixing. Because you don't want to waste time, energy and money on a solution to a problem that doesn't need fixing...

Until next time, keep thinking.

Alternative Definitions of a Thinking Focus

Once you have a Thinking Focus (ie the specific issue that you are focusing your thinking on), then it can be useful to consider alternative definitions of this Thinking Focus.

The Benefits of Alternative Definitions
Here are some of the benefits of getting alternative definitions of your thinking focus:

1) You look at the issue from a variety of different angles
Sometimes we are so fixated in looking at the issue from one particular angle,
that we miss out on another, better angle. Breakthroughs often happen
when you look at an issue from a new angle.

2) You gain a deeper understanding of the issue
Even if you don't gain that breakthrough insight into the issue, you still nevertheless
gain a deeper understanding of the issue, and thus are better placed to think about it.


An example: the current conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Let us take the current middle east conflict as our thinking focus. We will make it a General Area focus (see my earlier post on the different type of thinking Focuses), as follows:

"We want new ideas in the area of peace between Israel and Hamas".

Let us now come up with some alternative definitions of the Focus. I will
just list them now:

We want ideas in how to stop the fighting between Israel and Hamas
We want ideas in how to minimise civilian casualties in the fighting between Israel and Hamas
We want ideas in how to bring about a ceasefire between the parties
We want ideas in how to make Israel withdraw it's forces
We want ideas in how to stop Hamas from firing rockets into Israel
We want ideas in how to make diplomacy effective in bringing peace
We want ideas in how to convince the Israeli government that fighting is not the answer
We want ideas in how to convince Hamas that fighting is not the answer
We want ideas in how to bring the moderates from both sides into power.


You get the idea...I could have easily gone on, exploring the issue further. The trick is not going until you get the "right" answer, but rather going long enough that your perception is expanded. That way, you gain new insight. Even if you don't come up with the "right" answer (if there is such a thing), you still gain some fresh perspectives, and possible ways ahead.

In any situation, there is value in compiling such a list of alternative focus definitions.

Until next time, keep thinking.

Multiple Thinking Focuses

In an earlier post, we discussed the importance of thinking Focuses, as shown by Edward DeBono in his book Serious Creativity: Using the Power of Lateral Thinking to Create New Ideas.

We now move to the topic of breaking down the thinking Focus into various Subfocuses, or subtasks. This is simply a case of seeing what the components (or pieces), of the thinking Focus might be. Thus if I was to focus on "Romance with my wife", then a few subfocuses might be "places to take her", "Things to write her", "Things to buy her", "Activities to do with her"...you get the idea!

Advantages of Subfocuses
Subfocuses can be very powerful. A few advantages of subfocuses are as follows:

1) They give sharp focus to specific tasks
The best thinking is clear thinking. And the way to get clear thinking is by being precise and specific (as opposed to hazy and unclear). A subfocus will give you more clarity and precision in your thinking, as the item that you think about will be clearer and discrete.

2) They open up new things to think about
If you break a Focus down into subfocuses, you may well come up with new areas to think about, that you would not have seen otherwise. For example, if you thought of a Focus such as "Romance with my her", then some subfocuses could be: "Making her feel special", "Places to take her", "Things to give her", "Activities to do together", "Things to buy for her".

By simply breaking down this Focus into the subfocuses, you now have new things to think about, and potentially many new ideas within those subfocuses

3) Subfocuses make thinking easier
Thinking about big, complex matters is more difficult than thinking about simpler, more discrete items. So to use the above example, thinking about "Romance with my wife" is not as easy as, say, "Places to take her". And dare I say it, often we don't think, because we're daunted by the complexity of what we're trying to think about: if it's too hard, too complex, then we don't think as clearly, or as well, as we should. That is why the best thinkers are those that are able to take complex, difficult problems, and turn them into understandable concepts (subfocuses), as well as explaining them in simple to understand terms to others.

Make it a habit to turn a Focus into Subfocuses
If you consistently turn a Focus into Subfocuses, you will gain clarity and insight into your thinking. Even if you don't need subfocuses, it is still a helpful exercise, as it helps you look at the thinking Focus from new angles.

We need to commit to thinking

In the June 2008 edition of Leadership Wired, author John Maxwell blasts those leaders who do not commit to regular, deliberate thinking.

He says that "when a leader is all action, it's only a matter of time until he or she falls behind, steers off course, and surrenders the reins of leadership."

Wow. What a strong thing to say. Either you commit to regular thinking (and not just action - although action is good and necessary), or else you become less effective as a leader (and as a human being, I would add).

Maxwell then quotes author Gordon MacDonald, who has this very thought provoking thing to say:

"In our pressurized society, people who are out of shape mentally usually fall victim to ideas and systems that are destructive to the human spirit and to the human relationship. They are victimized because they have not taught themselves how to think, nor have they set themselves to the lifelong pursuit of the mind. Not having the faculty of a strong mind, they grow dependant upon the thoughts and opinions of others."

What a beautiful quote!

It speaks a lot to the importance of developing the habit of thinking. Because if we can think clearly for ourselves, then we don't have to be dependant on other people doing the thinking for us....eg marketers, politicians etc.

If we can think for ourselves, then we can make more informed and better decisions about life, and be more effective in the way that we live our life.

Otherwise, we can find ourselves making poor decisions, and doing things that have negative consequences, simply because we have not thought through what is best.

Or worse still, we will just do what everybody else is doing (which is not always good), because we are too lazy/unable to think for ourselves.

So how do you develop the habit of thinking? How can you become a deliberate thinker? I'll be sharing my thoughts on this topic in the next post.

Until then, keep thinking.

4 Occasions for Using Focus Thinking

According to de Bono in his book Serious Creativity: Using the Power of Lateral Thinking to Create New Ideas, there are 4 distinct occasions when the use of focus thinking is applicable.

1) Defined Need or Purpose
This is when there is a specific purpose or task that needs completion. The task may have been selected by an individual or group, or assigned to them. Given such a task/purpose, how then do you use the skill of focus? Here is my suggested use of focus in such situations:

a) You firstly define exactly what the task is. For example:

- We need to do a find a new way of helping our students learn their subject matter.

b) You can next pick out various sub-focuses, and define them, with a view to thinking about them separately:

- We need to clarify what subject material they need to learn
- We need some new ways of making the subject material interesting
- We need some ideas in the area of memorising.

c) Once the sub-focuses have been defined, you can then go ahead and apply some creative thinking (or analysis) to these sub-focuses.

The advantage of clarifying the various focuses up front is that your thinking can remain clear and disciplined. I think that as a general rule, it's better to define your thinking focuses up front, and to make them broad and general to begin with, before "drilling down" into more narrow focuses. So in the above example, when thinking about "making subject material interesting", you could break that down into different subjects: e.g. "how to make mathematics interesting".

2) Routine review
In a routine review there is no specific task or problem that needs "fixing". Rather, there is a need to review certain procedures, processes, goals, etc. As with the above occasion, you can divide up the procedure into convenient attention areas and attention focuses. The focus thinking can be both purpose focus, and general area focus.

I must stress, however, that when thinking about procedures and processes, always ensure that you are clear about what the purpose of the procedure is. If that purpose is no longer necessary, then the easiest thing is to ditch the procedure, rather than trying to rehash it in some way. Good, clear thinking is required in such situations!

3) Idea-sensitive point (i.s.p)
An "idea-sensitive point" (i.s.p) is a point at which a new idea or concept would have a very significant effect. Just like that proverbial straw that breaks the camels back, an idea at this point would significantly change things.

So you as a thinker set out to find those points which would respond to a change in idea or concept. Now this search is an operation in itself - it requires good, solid, clear thinking.
When you have found what seems to be an idea sensitive point, then you try to develop new ideas at that point.

It differs from a review in that when you review something, you don't automatically assume that a new idea will make a huge difference.

So, taking a fairly obvious (engineering) example, an idea sensitive point might be the way that calculations are carried out for an engineering report. If they have always been carried out by hand, you might feel that some new idea at that point might bring about rapid improvement in both efficiency and accuracy. Thus "engineering calculations" might be an idea sensitive point.

4) Whim
There is where you just pause and focus on something just because you want to - not because there's any particular reason to do so. This is a very important skill to have, because if you are able to focus on things when there is no reason to, then you'll be able to pick up on matters that other people might have missed.

I think its probably better, though, to set aside time to think on a whim, so that it does become regular and deliberate, rather than accidental and infrequent.


To do:
Next time you have to do a review of something, take 2 mins to write down all the elements that you could focus on. Once you have these intial focuses, break them down into more narrow and specific subfocuses.

Lateral Thinking Tool #2 - The Creative Focus (Part 3 of 3)

This post will detail the final type of creative focus, namely the "Purpose Focus". This is the type of focus that most people are familiar with. In a purpose focus, you ask the following types of questions:

- "What is the purpose of our thinking?"

- "What are we trying to achieve?"

- "What is the goal?"

- "What is the target?"

- "With what do we want to end up?"

4 Types of Purpose Focus
There are 4 basic types of purpose focus, although there may be many variations and combinations of these. These are best thought of as different "goals" for the purpose focus: different "outcomes" that you want to achieve.

1) Improvement
This is where you define the creative focus as an attempt to get improvement in a defined direction. For example:

- We want ideas to speed up travel to and from work

- We want ideas to reduce the number of sick days that our people take

- We want ideas for simlifying the controls on a stereo

- We want ideas to reduce world hunger

If the direction of improvement is not defined, then the focus becomes very similar to a general area focus. Eg:

- We want ways of improving customer service.

Whilst the above example is not as open ended as a general area focus, it nevertheless opens up broad possibilites for solutions. Another thing to keep in mind when thinking about such a broad focus is to break it down into subtasks. For each subtask there might be a defined direction for improvement.

2) Problem Solving
This is where you have to solve a problem or overcome some difficulty. We know that we want to end up without the problem or difficulty, and so we define the purpose focus in this way. For example:

- How can we reduce the greenhouse gas emmissions of vehicles?

- We need ideas to prevent getting sick during winter.

- How can we deal with pick-pocketing?

- We need ideas to reduce traffic noise.

Some of these focii sound like improvements, because of words like "reduce". So there is some overlap between problem solving and improvement .

The main difference between the two is that in problem solving a difficulty/problem is clearly defined, whereas in improvement a change in a general direction (cost, time, etc) is desired.

3) Task
When thinking about a task, you're not just wanting to remove a problem, but to reach a desired point.

- I want to design an e-commerce website for my sports store

- I want to have 5000 people on my email subscription list

- I want to pass all of my exams

- We want some new ideas to help us get elected

- We need a chocolate that does not melt in the desert

Again, there is some overlap here with problems. To be honest, the philosophical distinction between the two is not that watertight, nor important. Often it just depends on how you word the focus.

4) Opportunity
When thinking about an opportunity, you have a sense of potential, of new things that might happen. Opportunities can be tackled as a general area focus, such as when you ask: "We need some ideas in this opportunity area of selling photographs". Further examples of opportunities might be:

- How can we use these new walkie talkies?

- Most people cannot afford to buy houses anymore - can we see an opportunity there?

- Broadband internet is getting cheaper - can we see an opportunity there?

- Wheat is incredibly expensive at the moment - how can we use this as an opportunity?

I think that when you deliberately focus on things as opportunities, then your mind automatically starts seeing the situation in a different light, allowing you to focus on coming up with ideas that make the most of the situation. The above example of wheat being incredibly expensive is causing major problems to over 1 billion of the worlds poorest people, and is an intolerable problem. But at the same time, it does raise opportunities - if wheat is so expensive, then it is in high demand. Is there some way of allowing/helping the worlds poor to grow wheat for themselves, so they don't have to pay for it, and at the same time sell it for a good price? I'm sure there is much thinking that can be done (and needs to be done) in this area.

Well, we've come to the end of our three part series on The Creative Focus. You now have the tool to choose things to think about in a disciplined and deliberate manner. This is the first step along the road of becoming a better thinker (and in particular, a lateral thinker). In future posts, I'll be examining more advanced thinking tools, so stay tuned!

In the meantime, here is an exercise for you:

1) Choose a general area focus - "I want some ideas in the area of...."

2) Come up with (3) ideas in that area.

3) Turn those (3) ideas into a purpose focus, and write them down.

4) Do this once a day for the next week.